Thursday, July 12, 2012

The Open Championship Picking Preview

Fifteen straight majors with a different champion, 11 of those were first time winners. This got me thinking. How have these guys done since? How did they do in their next major? Some pretty interesting stuff below, needless to say - I would not be picking Webb Simpson for the British this week...

Major Winner                           Next Major                            OWGR (as of 7/1)
Webb Simpson                           NP                                            5
Bubba Watson                            MC                                           6
Darren Clarke                             MC                                           81
Rory McIlroy                              T64                                           2
Charl Schwartzel                         T9                                             17
Martin Kaymer                            MC                                           15
Louis Oosthuizen                         MC                                           20
Graeme McDowell                      T23                                           11
Phil Mickelson                             T4                                             14
Angel Cabrera                             T54                                           190
Lucas Glover                               MC                                           125
Stewart Cink                               T67                                           176
Y.E. Yang                                   T8                                             70
Padraig Harrington                       T35                                           69

Some quick thoughts on the above. Five didn't make the next major cut, the average finish for the eight that did was 29th. Mickelson's T4 at the U.S. Open and Yang's T8 at the following Masters skews this number even more.

There are several logical explanations for poor play at the next major including the fact that the winner of the U.S. Open has just five weeks to prep for an entirely different style of golf at The Open and vice versa for that winner prior to the PGA. And the winner of the PGA has nearly seven months before he tees it up at Augusta. More logically though are the increasing demands on the players' schedule and his elevated expectations of himself heading into that next major. Some of these guys are drained and some may have acheived their lifelong goal and decided to take it a bit easy afterward.

The fact that many have fallen so far down the world rankings isn't as easy to explain however.

Glover was arguably one of the top young players in the game when he won. Although he was relatively unknown outside of golf nerd circles, the guy was a proven player and one of the best ball strikers on tour. Today he's ammassed a whopping $67,000 in earnings on the tour this year and shows little interest in the game.

Cink was a career grinder prior to his win at The Open over Tom Watson in a playoff, he has more than $30M in career earnings. There's not much more for him to prove and he's likely on the downside of his PGA TOUR career.

Clarke has a similar story to Cink but has been through a lot with his family and when he got the surprise win last year at The Open it was likely time to hoist a few pints and have a quiet season in 2012.

Out of the first time "young guns" it will come down to whether they want to be great or spend their time and new found wealth pursuing other interests. I don't know any of them well enough to project which way they'll go, but I hope Rory and Bubba will dedicate themselves. They have talents nobody else possesses but do they love the game enough?

Stay tuned, let's read this again in 3 years. Thanks to Wikipedia's sweet golf major page for the knowledge -

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